Issue 286 1 September 2010

Issue of the week

As much as we’d love to be writing about something else… it’s Election Day +11, and an endgame appears a little closer if frustratingly still not in full focus.

The Greens, unsurprisingly, have thrown their lot in with the Labor Party, extracting some commitments on their big ticket items along the way. A continuing Gillard Government would overhaul election funding, hold a referendum on acknowledging Indigenous Australians in the Constitution, have a Parliamentary debate on the war in Afghanistan, and form a climate change committee, among other things.

Bob Katter has said he’s “a hair’s breadth” from announcing his decision but will wait until his two rural independent colleagues are similarly decided before he lets us know. But his decision to ignore the briefing by UN climate expert Nicholas Stern and Australian economist Ross Garnaut (he described them as “lightweight” and “stupid”) might indicate he’s leaning towards the more climate-sceptical Coalition.

Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie has said Julia Gillard’s response to his list of 20 “priorities” is “unsatisfactory”. It’s uncertain whether she refused to build a new Royal Hobart Hospital or Julia just enjoys a night out at the pokies.

Gillard has re-pitched her argument for retaining Government, this time at the National Press Club.

The two party preferred vote was retabulated, which saw Opposition frontbencher Julie Bishop claim Labor had lost both the primary and 2PP count, but the West Australian might have been a bit premature. It has since see-sawed to and from Labor, but is expected to go Gillard’s way when ALP-Greens contests are included in the count. In any case it’s academic – the magic number is 76, not 5,472,000.

After a pretty undisciplined weekend Tony Abbott managed to fit Alby Schultz and Bill Heffernan into that box with Barnaby Joyce, but the longer this continues the more chance there is of another eruption.

And the rest of us are like the kids in the back of the car on that long summer drive up the coast: “Are we there yet?”
 

Personality of the week

The new independent member for Denison, Andrew Wilkie, is proving a hard man to figure out – but he is clearly a man with strong convictions. Born in Tamworth, Wilkie allegedly joined the Young Liberals as a cadet at the Royal Military College, Duntroon in the early 1980s but is married to former Labor staffer Kate Burton.

Following 20 years of military service and after rising to the rank of Lieutenant Colonel, Wilkie became an intelligence officer at the Office of National Assessments (ONA), with a short stint at the Defence contractor Raytheon. Wilkie first came to national prominence by resigning from the ONA in March 2003 and going public with claims that intelligence reports did not back up the then Coalition Government’s assertion that Iraq was stockpiling weapons of mass destruction.

After becoming Australia’s best-known whistleblower he has become the political equivalent of what footballers would call a ‘journeyman’. Prior to this year’s federal election he ran as the Greens candidate in Bennelong in against John Howard in 2004; was the number two Greens Senate candidate in Tasmania in 2007; and then after falling out with the Greens he ran as an independent for the Tasmanian State seat of Denison in the State poll earlier this year – failing to win a spot in the Tasmanian Parliament by around 300 votes.

It appeared that Wilkie would be the first of the Independents to declare his allegiances, but the timeframe appears to be slipping based on recent comments. He has also rejected Julia Gillard’s first offer as unsatisfactory, has not had a formal offer from Abbott and will be meeting with both leaders again today. Wilkie has said he will support neither side if he cannot be confident that they will deliver “stable, competent and ethical government”.
 

Doing the numbers

As the independents continue to kick political tyres we asked voters whether they would they vote differently if they could have their time over and knowing about the hung parliament that resulted from the election 11 days ago.

Thirteen per cent, or more than one in ten voters, regret their vote at last week’s Federal Election and would vote differently if they had the opportunity to revisit their vote. As we told the SMH’s Phil Coorey, the proportion of voters that say they would vote differently is more than enough to result in a substantially changed Federal Parliament were Australians to be called back to the polls in the near future.

Looking at the distribution of voter regret there are some interesting variations by age and location:

• Younger voters are notably more likely than older voters to say they would vote differently given the chance to vote again. 18 per cent of voters aged 18-34 would change their vote while only 8 per cent of voters aged over 65 would revisit their ballot paper.
• 16 per cent of NSW voters and 14 per cent of Queensland voters say they would vote differently, compared with 11 per cent of voters in South Australia and Queensland and 10 per cent of voters in Western Australia.

This should cause some reflection for those involved in the negotiations in Canberra this week and an additional incentive (if one was required) to resolve the situation without going back to the nation and asking them to do it for them.

Poll results were provided by online research panel pureprofile. The poll surveyed a nationally representative sample of 1,004 Australians. To find out more about pureprofile’s services, please contact tspiegel@pureprofile.com .
 

Something you didn’t know

Australians are not used to hung Federal Parliaments; we are used to one clear winner. When this does not happen, our unique system of formal Constitutional rules and informal conventions determines the process of establishing the next government.

As a first step the August 2010 election must be finalised, the writs returned and all members declared elected, after which they'll be sworn in at the first day of sitting. This means Parliament must sit before another election can occur.

Parliament must also sit to test the House of Representatives’ confidence in the Government. Providing it does not resign, under caretaker conventions the incumbent Government retains its executive powers. It is up to the Opposition to defeat the Government in Parliament to either secure executive powers for itself or force an early election. The first test of the Government occurs when the House of Representatives votes to elect its nominated Speaker. If this vote fails, the Opposition is then given the opportunity to form a majority, and therefore Government, which can also be tested on the floor of Parliament.

In the unlikely event that the independents do not side with either major party, the ALP can continue to govern. However, if its bills are constantly defeated but the Opposition could not secure a no-confidence motion in the Government, the Governor-General is entitled to dissolve the House of Representatives because it is unworkable.

If the Opposition can form a majority either through a by-election or recruitment of enough independents through the Parliamentary term, the Governor-General can also appoint a new Prime Minister without an election.

If there is an early return to the polls, this will only be for the House of Representatives as there cannot be another half senate election until after July 2013.
 

ICU

There’s nothing like a good old fashioned undercover sting to uncover good old fashioned match fixing – which is what has rocked the international cricketing world over the last week.

The International Cricket Council is investigating claims Pakistan bowlers Mohammad Amir and Mohammad Asif intentionally bowled no-balls in a test against England last week. Captain Salman Butt and wicketkeeper Kamran Akmal have also been implicated in the scandal, which was uncovered by British tabloid The News of the World.

This is a significant hit to the ICC, which has been accused of failing to eradicate corruption ever since the late South African captain Hansie Cronje was banned for life for match-fixing 10 years ago.

ICC CEO Haroon Lorgat has said the situation is both "sad and disappointing" but is denying the ICC is a vehicle for corruption – either passively or actively. What the ICC needs now is not a set of key messages, but rather a dynamic shift in leadership and accountability.
 

What's to come

Last week, Channel 10 announced the launch of a new digital channel Eleven targeting the 13-29 years demographic. It’s taking Australia’s once-favourite soap Neighbours as well as The Simpsons along with it.

But this means that from next year Channel 10 will be replacing these programs with two and half hours of news and current affairs, making a significant investment of 100 additional staff at a cost of $100 million.

The one hour bulletin from 5 to 6pm will remain, the 6-6.30pm timeslot will be filled with a half-hour “national news based program” (widely expected to be hosted by First Tuesday Bookclub’s Jennifer Byrne) followed by a state-based news bulletin going head to head with Today Tonight and A Current Affair from 6.30. This will be followed by Ten’s surprise hit, The 7pm Project.

This means a whole lot more content to make up those two and a half hours, great news for news junkies and talking heads.
 

Political quote of the week

“I just want to talk about national broadband. Tell him it’s The Devil.”

- Senator Bill Heffernan to Sarah-Jane Oakeshott after trying to reach her husband, reported in the Tele, 31 August.
 

Media quote of the week

“There is a view among the wiser heads on both sides of politics that forming a minority government off the back of this 2010 result may well be one of the most toxic poison chalices ever offered in Australian politics.”

- David Penberthy in The Punch, 29 August.
 

ICU quote of the week

“I’m telling you, if you play this right you’re going to make a lot of money, believe me.”

- Alleged match fixer Mazhar Majeed. The News of the World, 29 August.